Global food production will need to rise by 70 percent to feed an additional 2.3 billion people by 2050, according to an FAO discussion paper released today. This increase must be achieved while addressing challenges such as poverty, hunger, efficient use of limited natural resources, and climate change adaptation.
The FAO will host a High-Level Expert Forum on "How to Feed the World in 2050" in Rome from 12 to 13 October 2009 to tackle these issues. The forum will gather around 300 experts from academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector, representing developing and developed countries.
The outcomes of this forum will lay the groundwork for the World Summit on Food Security, which is scheduled to take place in Rome from November 16 to 18, 2009.
Cautious Optimism
FAO Assistant Director-General Hafez Ghanem warned that the world has the potential to feed its population by 2050, but it is far from guaranteed. While expressing cautious optimism, Ghanem emphasized the need to address significant challenges, including creating a proper socioeconomic framework to combat inequalities and ensure global access to food. He also highlighted the importance of sustainable food production practices that reduce poverty and consider natural resource limitations.
Projections suggest that, beyond current investments in agriculture, additional substantial investments will be required to improve access to food. Without these efforts, approximately 370 million people, 5 percent of the developing world's population, could remain hungry in 2050.
Population Growth and Urbanization
According to the latest UN estimates, the global population will grow from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion by 2050, adding a third more mouths to feed. The majority of this growth will occur in developing regions:
Sub-Saharan Africa: Population expected to double, rising by 108 percent to 910 million people.
East and Southeast Asia: Slower growth, up 11 percent to 228 million people.
Urbanization will also accelerate, with 70 percent of the world’s population living in cities or urban areas by 2050, up from 49 percent today.
Meeting these challenges will require innovative strategies, global cooperation, and significant financial commitments to ensure food security for all.
Food demand
The global demand for food is set to grow significantly, driven by population increases and rising incomes. By 2050, the demand for cereals – used for food and animal feed – is projected to reach 3 billion tonnes, requiring annual production to increase by nearly 1 billion from the current 2.1 billion tonnes.
Similarly, meat production must grow by over 200 million tonnes, reaching 470 million by 2050. Notably, 72 percent of meat consumption will occur in developing countries, a rise from 58 percent today.
In addition to food demand, the production of biofuels may further increase the need for agricultural commodities, influenced by factors such as energy prices and government policies. Meeting these growing demands will require innovative approaches, efficient resource management, and global cooperation.
Land
While 90 percent of the projected growth in crop production is expected to come from higher yields and increased cropping intensity, expanding arable land will still be necessary. In developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, arable land must grow by approximately 120 million hectares. Conversely, arable land in developed countries is projected to shrink by 50 million hectares, though this trend could shift depending on biofuel demand.
Globally, there are sufficient land resources to meet future food demand. However, FAO warns that many of these land resources are:
Suitable for growing only a limited number of crops, which may not align with the highest-demand crops.
Concentrated in a small number of countries.
Constrained by challenges such as poor soil quality, lack of infrastructure, endemic diseases, and physical barriers.
Significant investments would be required to make this land productive. Additionally, much of the land not yet in use is either covered by forests or subject to expanding urban areas.
In regions like the Near East/North Africa and South Asia, the availability of arable land has already reached or is nearing its limit, further highlighting the need for sustainable land management and innovative agricultural practices to meet future food needs.
Water
Although the pace of water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture is expected to slow due to improved water use efficiency and reduced demand, global withdrawals are projected to rise by nearly 11 percent by 2050.
While global freshwater resources are sufficient, their distribution is highly uneven. Water scarcity will become a severe issue in more countries and regions, particularly in the Near East/North Africa and South Asia. Addressing this challenge will require producing more food with less water, emphasizing water-saving techniques and sustainable practices. With its impact on rainfall patterns, climate change will likely exacerbate water scarcity issues.
Yield Potential
Despite concerns, FAO maintains that there is significant potential to increase crop yields to meet future food demands. By implementing the right socio-economic incentives, it is possible to bridge the gap between actual yields and agro-ecologically attainable yields.
Fears that crop yields are plateauing are largely unfounded, with only a few exceptions in specific circumstances. Unlocking this yield potential will be crucial to feeding the growing global population efficiently and sustainably.
By addressing water scarcity and leveraging untapped yield potential, the world can make significant progress toward ensuring food security for future generations.
Stronger Interventions
The FAO has emphasized the need for more substantial and targeted interventions to accelerate the reduction and eventual elimination of hunger and poverty. Central to this effort is prioritizing investment in primary agriculture, which must increase by approximately 60 percent. Agriculture not only supplies food but also generates income and supports rural livelihoods.
However, poverty reduction extends beyond agriculture. It requires investments in:
Rural infrastructure: Roads, ports, power, storage facilities, and irrigation systems.
Institutions and services: Research, extension services, land titles and rights, risk management systems, and veterinary and food safety controls.
Non-agricultural support: Social safety nets and cash transfers for vulnerable populations.
Without comprehensive development and investment in rural areas of poorer nations, deprivation and inequality will persist, albeit at reduced levels compared to today. Addressing these challenges holistically is essential for achieving sustainable progress.
