Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast predicts a 7% to 9% increase in holiday retail sales for 2021, projecting total sales between $1.28 and $1.3 trillion from November to January. The forecast also anticipates robust growth in e-commerce, with online sales expected to rise by 11% to 15%, reaching between $210 billion and $218 billion.
Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, attributes the projected increase to solid consumer spending as vaccination rates rise and consumers feel more comfortable engaging in activities outside the home. “We are likely to see increased spending on services like restaurants and travel while spending on goods remains steady. The decline in savings rates to pre-pandemic levels will also support elevated retail sales this season,” Bachman explained.
Last year’s holiday sales exceeded expectations, growing by 5.8%, and 2021 is expected to continue this trend. However, ongoing uncertainties, such as the Delta variant, may still influence consumer behavior, potentially driving higher spending on goods rather than services.
Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte LLP and U.S. retail and distribution leader, highlights the importance of flexibility for retailers. “Pandemic-influenced shopping behaviors continue to shape consumer preferences. Retailers who adapt to shifting habits and provide seamless online and in-store shopping options, along with efficient order fulfillment, will be well-positioned for growth during this holiday season and beyond,” he said.
The 2021 holiday sales forecast builds on last year’s figures, which totaled $1.19 trillion (a 5.8% increase from 2019) and included $189 billion in e-commerce sales, reflecting a 34.8% year-over-year growth. With continued shifts in consumer behavior and steady growth in disposable income, this holiday season is set to bring another strong showing for retailers.
