Air Conditioning Use Emerges as One of the Key Drivers of Global Electricity-Demand Growth

A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the rapid increase in air conditioner use worldwide will be one of the main contributors to rising electricity demand over the next three decades. The report, The Future of Cooling, highlights the urgent need for improved energy efficiency in cooling systems to avoid what it calls a looming “cold crunch.”

According to the IEA, energy use from air conditioners is expected to triple by 2050, requiring electricity capacity equal to that of the United States, the EU, and Japan combined. The number of air conditioning units installed globally is projected to grow from 1.6 billion to 5.6 billion by mid-century – roughly 10 units sold every second for the next 30 years.

Air conditioners and electric fans already consume around 20% of the electricity used in buildings, accounting for 10% of global electricity demand. As incomes rise, especially in developing nations across hotter climates, the demand for cooling is poised to increase dramatically. By 2050, air conditioning is projected to become the second-largest source of electricity demand growth worldwide – surpassed only by the industrial sector – and the building sector's leading driver.

Efficiency Makes a Big Difference

The IEA stresses that this trend could place substantial financial and environmental pressure on energy systems without stronger efficiency standards. Efficiency varies widely across countries: for instance, AC units in Japan and the EU are typically 25% more efficient than those sold in China and the U.S.

Improving AC efficiency through policies such as mandatory performance standards could cut expected energy demand growth in half. “Growing electricity demand for air conditioning is one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate,” said IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol. He emphasized the need for governments to raise performance standards, especially in emerging markets where demand is set to soar.

A More Sustainable Cooling Future

The IEA outlines an “Efficient Cooling Scenario” per the Paris Agreement. This plan includes stricter efficiency regulations, product labeling, and public awareness campaigns. If implemented globally, the average energy efficiency of AC units could more than double by 2050, slashing the need for expensive infrastructure expansion.

These measures would reduce emissions and save up to $2.9 trillion in fuel, operating, and investment costs while making cooling more accessible and affordable worldwide.

Equity in Cooling Access

Only one-third of households worldwide have an air conditioner. In contrast, AC ownership is above 90% in countries like the U.S. and Japan but remains below 10% in many hottest regions, including large parts of Asia and Africa.

India, in particular, is expected to see a massive increase in cooling-related electricity demand. Without efficiency improvements, air conditioning could account for 45% of peak electricity use in India by 2050, compared to just 10% today. Meeting this demand will require substantial investment in nighttime energy capacity, which solar power cannot fulfill.

Dr. Birol concludes, “Setting higher efficiency standards for cooling is one of the easiest and most impactful steps governments can take. It cuts emissions, reduces the need for new power plants, and saves money simultaneously.”