Global Energy & CO2 Status Report

Global energy-related CO2 emissions surged 1.4% in 2017, reaching 32.5 gigatonnes (Gt). This marked the end of three years of stable emissions, signaling a shift in global energy trends. The increase, amounting to 460 million tonnes, contrasts with the reductions needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate targets.

Strong economic growth, lower fossil fuel prices, and weakened energy efficiency measures largely drove the rise in emissions. A global economic expansion of 3.7% contributed to a 2.1% rise in energy demand, pushing emissions higher. The additional CO2 output was equivalent to the annual emissions of approximately 170 million extra cars on the road.

Emissions Growth Varied Across Regions

While most major economies saw rising emissions, some experienced notable declines. The United States recorded the most significant reduction, with emissions falling by 0.5% (25 Mt) to 4,810 Mt of CO2. This decline, the third consecutive annual decrease, was mainly due to a record 17% share of renewables in electricity generation and a steady 20% contribution from nuclear power.

The United Kingdom also saw a significant drop, with emissions falling 3.8% (15 Mt) to their lowest level since 1960. A shift from coal to natural gas and renewables led to a 19% decline in coal demand. Mexico’s emissions decreased by 4% due to reduced oil and coal use, increased energy efficiency, and growth in renewables-based electricity generation. Japan’s emissions dropped by 0.5% as nuclear and renewable energy replaced fossil-fuel generation, particularly oil.

Asia Accounted for Two-Thirds of the Emissions Increase

Despite efforts to transition to cleaner energy, Asian economies contributed most of the global emissions increase. China, which experienced nearly 7% economic growth, saw emissions rise by 1.7% (150 Mt) in 2017. However, this increase was relatively moderate due to the continued adoption of renewables and an accelerated shift from coal to natural gas. China’s total CO2 emissions reached 9.1 Gt, about 1% higher than their 2014 level. Though the country’s coal consumption peaked in 2013, emissions have risen due to growing oil and gas demand.

India also saw higher emissions at only half the pace recorded over the past decade. The country’s per capita emissions remained at 1.7 tCO2, significantly below the global average of 4.3 tCO2. The European Union, after years of decline, recorded a 1.5% increase (50 Mt) in emissions, mainly due to rising oil and gas consumption. Southeast Asia added to the emissions surge, with Indonesia leading the region’s growth at 4.5% compared to 2016.

A Setback for Climate Goals

The increase in CO2 emissions in 2017 raises serious concerns about global efforts to combat climate change. The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario outlines a path to meeting long-term climate goals, requiring emissions to peak soon and decline rapidly by 2020. However, the recent emissions surge means the necessary reduction must be even steeper.

To align with this scenario, the share of low-carbon energy sources must grow by 1.1 percentage points annually – over five times the growth rate recorded in 2017. In the power sector, renewable electricity generation must expand by 700 TWh per year, far exceeding the 380 TWh increase seen in 2017. Carbon Capture, Usage, and Storage (CCUS) will also be crucial in reducing industrial and power sector emissions.

The growth in 2017 emissions serves as a stark reminder that current measures are insufficient. Stronger policy actions, faster renewable adoption, and enhanced energy efficiency are essential to reversing this trend and meeting global climate commitments.