Global Temperatures Set To Reach New Records In Next Five Years

Global temperatures are projected to reach record highs within the next five years due to the combined effects of greenhouse gas emissions and an impending El Niño event, according to a recent report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

There is a 66% probability that at least one year between 2023 and 2027 will see global average temperatures surpass pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C. Additionally, there is a 98% likelihood that at least one year in this period, as well as the entire five-year span, will set new temperature records.

WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas clarified that this does not mean the world will permanently exceed the 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming trends. However, he emphasized that the frequency of temporarily crossing this limit is increasing, which is a cause for concern.

With El Niño expected to develop in the coming months, its warming effects, combined with human-induced climate change, will push global temperatures to levels never seen before. Prof. Taalas highlighted the widespread impacts this could have, from health risks to disruptions in food supply, water resources, and ecosystems, stressing the need for preparedness.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK’s Met Office, which serves as WMO’s lead center for such predictions, estimates a 32% chance that the average temperature over five years will surpass the 1.5°C threshold.

The probability of temporarily exceeding this level has steadily increased since 2015, when the chance was nearly zero. Between 2017 and 2021, the likelihood stood at 10%.

Dr. Leon Hermanson, a lead scientist at the Met Office, stated that global average temperatures are expected to continue rising, pushing climate conditions further from what humanity has been accustomed to.

Key Points

• In 2022, the global average temperature was approximately 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 baseline. Over the past three years, La Niña conditions temporarily slowed the long-term warming trend. However, La Niña ended in March 2023, and an El Niño event is expected to develop soon. Typically, El Niño contributes to rising global temperatures in the year following its onset, meaning an increase is anticipated in 2024.
• The projected annual global near-surface temperature for each year from 2023 to 2027 is expected to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This period is used as a reference point because it predates the significant release of greenhouse gases due to industrial and human activities.
• There is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years will surpass the previous record high temperature set in 2016, a year characterized by an exceptionally strong El Niño.
• The likelihood that the five-year average temperature for 2023-2027 will be higher than the previous five-year period is also 98%.
• The Arctic is warming at a significantly faster rate than the rest of the planet. Over the next five extended winters in the Northern Hemisphere, the temperature anomaly in the Arctic is projected to be more than three times the global mean anomaly when compared to the 1991-2020 average.
• Forecasted precipitation trends for the May to September period from 2023 to 2027, relative to the 1991-2020 average, indicate an increase in rainfall across the Sahel region, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia. Conversely, drier conditions are expected over the Amazon and parts of Australia during this timeframe.

Paris Agreement

Beyond the rise in global temperatures, human-driven greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to ocean warming, acidification, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather events.

The Paris Agreement outlines long-term objectives to help nations significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is to limit global temperature rise this century to 2°C, while striving to keep the increase below 1.5°C. This effort aims to minimize harmful effects and associated risks.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the risks posed by climate change to both natural ecosystems and human societies are greater at a 1.5°C temperature increase than they are currently but still lower than at 2°C.

This latest report was published ahead of the World Meteorological Congress, scheduled from May 22 to June 2, where discussions will focus on improving weather and climate services to support adaptation strategies. Key topics for the event include the expansion of the Early Warnings for All initiative to safeguard people from intensifying extreme weather and the development of a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to enhance climate mitigation efforts.