Statement by NCSC Director William Evanina: Election Threat Update for the American Public

On July 24, 2020, I gave the American public an unclassified overview of foreign threats to the 2020 election and outlined steps to mitigate them. At that time, I committed the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) to continue its efforts to keep the public and key stakeholders informed about the evolving threat landscape while protecting intelligence sources and methods.

Today, we reaffirm that commitment by sharing additional insights into foreign adversaries’ intentions and activities related to the 2020 election. This update aims to inform Americans better and empower them to play a critical role in safeguarding our democracy. Below is the latest update:

Election Threat Landscape

As the 2020 elections draw closer, foreign states are expected to use a mix of covert and overt tactics to influence voter preferences, shape U.S. policies, sow discord, and erode confidence in the democratic process. Some may also attempt to compromise election infrastructure by interfering with voting, stealing sensitive data, or casting doubt on election results. However, large-scale interference with voting results remains unlikely.

While many foreign actors express preferences for the election outcome through public and private statements, covert influence campaigns are less common. The primary concerns center on the activities of China, Russia, and Iran.

Country-Specific Threat Assessments

China

China is assessed to prefer that President Trump does not win reelection, viewing him as unpredictable. Ahead of the 2020 election, Beijing has ramped up influence efforts to shape U.S. policy, pressure political figures opposed to its interests, and counter criticism. In recent months, China’s public rhetoric has grown more critical of the Administration’s COVID-19 response, the closure of its Houston Consulate, and other issues. Beijing has also harshly criticized U.S. actions on Hong Kong, TikTok, the South China Sea, and its 5G ambitions. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to influence the presidential race, though Beijing carefully weighs the risks and benefits of more aggressive actions.

Russia

Russia is employing measures aimed at denigrating former Vice President Biden and the perceived anti-Russia “establishment.” It aligns with Moscow’s criticisms of Biden during his time in the Obama Administration, particularly regarding policies on Ukraine and support for anti-Putin opposition. Pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach has been spreading corruption claims, including leaked phone calls, to undermine Biden’s candidacy and the Democratic Party. Additionally, Kremlin-linked actors are actively promoting President Trump’s candidacy through social media and Russian state television.

Iran

Iran seeks to undermine U.S. democratic institutions, President Trump, and national unity ahead of the election. Tehran’s efforts will likely focus on online influence, such as spreading disinformation on social media and amplifying anti-U.S. narratives. These actions are motivated, in part, by Iran’s belief that a Trump reelection would sustain U.S. pressure aimed at fostering regime change.

IC Commitment to Election Security

These assessments represent the most current, accurate, and objective election threat information the IC can share in an unclassified setting. The IC’s dedicated professionals work tirelessly, often at significant personal risk, to safeguard the nation and deliver objective intelligence analysis.

Recognizing the growing demand for information as the election approaches, the IC has provided nearly 20 classified election threat briefings to presidential campaigns, political committees, and Members of Congress since mid-May 2020. Public updates will remain a priority, consistent with national security obligations. The IC’s efforts to inform stakeholders and the public on election threats are unprecedented.

Beyond sharing information, the IC is actively combating cyber and influence operations targeting the election. We support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in their critical roles in securing the electoral process.

As I stated on July 24, 2020, safeguarding our election is a collective responsibility, and it must remain exclusively ours. Any foreign effort to interfere with or influence our elections poses a direct threat to the foundation of our democracy.