Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Sales Will Reach $1.915 Trillion

Double-Digit Growth in Retail Sales Forecast Through 2020, With Ecommerce Topping $4 Trillion

Global retail sales are projected to reach $22.049 trillion in 2016, a 6.0% increase over the previous year. By 2020, total sales are expected to surpass $27 trillion, according to eMarketer’s report “Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Sales: The eMarketer Forecast for 2016.” While overall annual growth rates will gradually slow, the ecommerce sector is set to maintain robust double-digit growth throughout the period.

Total Retail and Ecommerce Sales Overview

eMarketer’s estimates include sales across all retail channels, encompassing ecommerce retailers, consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platforms like eBay, and sales from motor vehicle and parts dealers and gas stations. However, sales from travel, event tickets, and restaurants are excluded.

Retail ecommerce, covering internet orders of products and services (excluding travel, events, and dining), is projected to grow to $1.915 trillion in 2016, representing 8.7% of global retail spending. With a rapid growth rate of 23.7% in 2016, ecommerce will continue to outpace overall retail sales growth. By 2020, ecommerce sales are forecast to more than double, reaching $4.058 trillion and accounting for 14.6% of global retail sales.

Regional Highlights

Asia-Pacific

This region will remain the most significant and fastest-growing retail ecommerce market. Sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2016 and climb to $2.725 trillion by 2020, driven by expanding middle classes, increasing internet and mobile penetration, improving logistics, and heightened competition among ecommerce players.
China is the dominant market in Asia-Pacific and globally, with expected ecommerce sales of $899.09 billion in 2016, accounting for nearly half (47.0%) of worldwide ecommerce revenue. However, some parts of the region, such as Southeast Asia, face challenges due to underdeveloped digital payment systems and weak logistics infrastructure, keeping ecommerce growth in those areas at an early stage.

North America

Retail ecommerce sales in North America are expected to grow 15.6% in 2016, reaching $423.34 billion. The region will remain the second-largest ecommerce market and continue to see double-digit growth through 2020. Factors driving this growth include increased spending by existing digital buyers, the expansion of ecommerce into categories like grocery, and the rise of mobile commerce (mcommerce).

Challenges and Market Adjustments

eMarketer has slightly lowered its overall retail sales projections from previous forecasts due to low oil prices and currency fluctuations. The U.S. dollar’s strength has reduced the value of retail sales in other currencies, impacting global sales figures. Additionally, persistently low oil prices have dampened retail sales in oil-dependent markets such as the U.S., Canada, and parts of Europe and Asia.

The Path Ahead

Retail ecommerce is positioned for sustained growth, with significant contributions from regions like Asia-Pacific and North America. While challenges persist in certain markets, innovations in logistics, payment systems, and category expansion are set to bolster ecommerce’s share of global retail sales. By 2020, the digital transformation of retail will solidify ecommerce’s role as a driving force in the global economy.